Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
